Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 34,903
2 Florida 31,835
3 Mississippi 31,370
4 Alabama 29,564
5 Arizona 29,403
6 Georgia 27,228
7 South Carolina 26,746
8 Tennessee 26,448
9 Iowa 25,485
10 Arkansas 25,092
11 Texas 24,915
12 Nevada 24,646
13 North Dakota 23,568
14 New York 23,369
15 New Jersey 22,691
16 Rhode Island 22,296
17 Illinois 21,888
18 Nebraska 21,238
19 District of Columbia 21,190
20 Idaho 21,134
21 South Dakota 21,133
22 Delaware 20,093
23 Maryland 19,957
24 California 19,945
25 Utah 19,891
26 Oklahoma 19,410
27 Missouri 18,709
28 Massachusetts 18,504
29 North Carolina 18,495
30 Wisconsin 18,436
31 Kansas 18,336
32 Indiana 16,893
33 Virginia 16,461
34 Minnesota 15,970
35 Connecticut 15,574
36 Kentucky 14,641
37 New Mexico 13,152
38 Puerto Rico 13,100
39 Michigan 12,831
40 Ohio 12,345
41 Pennsylvania 12,101
42 Colorado 11,330
43 Washington 11,315
44 Alaska 10,531
45 Montana 9,660
46 Wyoming 8,416
47 Hawaii 8,146
48 West Virginia 7,841
49 Oregon 7,302
50 New Hampshire 5,844
51 Maine 3,778
52 Vermont 2,748

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 540
2 Wisconsin 384
3 South Dakota 380
4 Utah 323
5 Puerto Rico 310
6 Oklahoma 293
7 Arkansas 277
8 Iowa 268
9 Missouri 245
10 Tennessee 240
11 Alabama 217
12 Nebraska 200
13 Minnesota 194
14 Montana 188
15 Mississippi 160
16 Kansas 158
17 Idaho 157
18 Illinois 157
19 Georgia 153
20 Kentucky 149
21 South Carolina 146
22 Florida 144
23 Indiana 141
24 Texas 138
25 Louisiana 137
26 Alaska 132
27 Wyoming 126
28 Nevada 121
29 Virginia 119
30 North Carolina 116
31 West Virginia 116
32 Arizona 107
33 Colorado 94
34 California 93
35 Maryland 90
36 Delaware 84
37 District of Columbia 77
38 Ohio 77
39 Hawaii 76
40 Massachusetts 68
41 New Mexico 60
42 Oregon 58
43 Pennsylvania 54
44 New Jersey 52
45 Washington 46
46 Michigan 45
47 New York 45
48 Rhode Island 41
49 New Hampshire 32
50 Maine 29
51 Connecticut 13
52 Vermont 5

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,808
2 New York 1,680
3 Massachusetts 1,350
4 Connecticut 1,259
5 Louisiana 1,154
6 Rhode Island 1,027
7 Mississippi 944
8 District of Columbia 878
9 Arizona 752
10 Michigan 698
11 Illinois 686
12 Maryland 641
13 Delaware 637
14 Pennsylvania 628
15 South Carolina 621
16 Florida 619
17 Georgia 607
18 Texas 522
19 Indiana 520
20 Alabama 497
21 Nevada 497
22 New Mexico 404
23 Iowa 400
24 Ohio 394
25 Arkansas 391
26 California 380
27 Minnesota 357
28 Virginia 353
29 Colorado 351
30 New Hampshire 322
31 Tennessee 321
32 North Carolina 311
33 Missouri 307
34 Washington 279
35 North Dakota 255
36 Kentucky 254
37 Idaho 247
38 Oklahoma 239
39 Nebraska 236
40 South Dakota 228
41 Wisconsin 214
42 Kansas 204
43 Puerto Rico 190
44 West Virginia 172
45 Montana 146
46 Utah 138
47 Oregon 125
48 Maine 103
49 Vermont 92
50 Hawaii 84
51 Wyoming 84
52 Alaska 57

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Montana 4
2 North Dakota 4
3 Arizona 3
4 Florida 3
5 Georgia 3
6 Hawaii 3
7 Louisiana 3
8 Mississippi 3
9 South Dakota 3
10 Virginia 3
11 Alabama 2
12 Massachusetts 2
13 Nevada 2
14 New Mexico 2
15 Puerto Rico 2
16 South Carolina 2
17 Tennessee 2
18 Texas 2
19 West Virginia 2
20 Arkansas 1
21 California 1
22 Idaho 1
23 Illinois 1
24 Indiana 1
25 Kansas 1
26 Minnesota 1
27 Missouri 1
28 North Carolina 1
29 Oklahoma 1
30 Pennsylvania 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 Delaware 0
35 District of Columbia 0
36 Iowa 0
37 Kentucky 0
38 Maine 0
39 Maryland 0
40 Michigan 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Jersey 0
44 New York 0
45 Ohio 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 148,895 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 148,188 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 146,313 3 99
Lafayette Florida 146,046 4 99
Lake Tennessee 124,430 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 40,340 177 94
Richland South Carolina 34,717 265 91
York South Carolina 18,162 1084 65
Orange California 16,809 1225 61
Pierce Washington 9,305 2103 33

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,848 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,676 3 99
Randolph Georgia 4,131 4 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 5 99
Richland South Carolina 541 711 77
Davidson Tennessee 416 968 69
Orange California 355 1117 64
York South Carolina 235 1484 52
Pierce Washington 233 1491 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons